What is the relationship between increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and global climate change?
The basic fact is that our releasing of greenhouse gasses actually strengthens the atmosphere. This sounds incorrect but that’s because we don’t want our protective shell surrounding the planet to be too strong. The sun’s rays are coming through whatever shell we have. It’s the “getting back out” part that’s the issue. That heat that can’t in large part escape means warming up under the shell.
The week we saw a great cartoon clip about how that’s just what carbon does! It can’t help it.
Here is a link to a site that has great graphics to illustrate the greenhouse effect.
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview-interactive/
Imperfect understanding of climate feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming. How can the use of climate models help in the understanding of these uncertainties?
These mathematical models can be used to best guess the future. Instead of just going by instinct or rumor, models take, as many real variables into account to illustrate what will happen if certain things occur. These models can inform the public and they can also lead people to certain conclusions. For example, if we stop burning so much oil, we can use a much better model then if we don’t.
With regards to the six emission scenarios, describe any evidence existing today that would suggest to you one or more of the scenarios may occur within the next 100 years. What key uncertainties (climate forcings and feedbacks) would exist for these scenarios as a whole, or specific ones individually?
I would like to say that without any unexpected forcings or feedbacks, our climate will stabilize (scenario A1). At least it won’t get any worse!
But the reality is that we people on this planet have to organize and gain singular focus for this to happen. There is a lot standing in the way.
The models don’t talk about increases in war, starvation, disease and the like. So, I think we had better go back to the black board if we want to make it 100 more years!
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